The 2026 Midterms: What to Expect on November 3

Oct 19, 2026 · Fred Starzyk

Two weeks out, my read is simple: Democrats are on track to take the House, and the Senate is a genuine coin flip that I expect Democrats to win by a narrow margin. That outcome would reshape the appropriations calendar, the oversight agenda, and every relationship we rely on to move tribal priorities.

The national environment has been moving in one direction since spring. The war with Iran and near-record fuel prices have dragged on the President's standing, and Republicans have lost their long-held edge as the party trusted on the economy. Ballotpedia's polling average had Democrats ahead 50% to 43% on the generic congressional ballot at the end of September, their best mark of this term. Midterms are a referendum on the party in the White House, and this one is shaping up to be no exception.

After nearly 25 years in this town, including time as a House staffer, I have learned to respect the map as much as the mood. Below is where I see each chamber landing, and what it means for the people we represent.

The House: Democrats take control

My prediction: Democrats win the House with roughly 238 seats, a net gain of about 24.

Republicans enter Election Day holding 219 seats to Democrats' 214, with two vacancies. Mid-decade redistricting was supposed to be the GOP's firewall. After the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act decision, new maps handed Republicans roughly a 10-seat structural boost. House GOP leaders now concede publicly that it fell short of what they needed.

The Cook Political Report's October 9 update moved 18 races toward Democrats in a single day. Cook now projects a Democratic gain of 9 to 19 seats, landing at 224 to 234. Of Cook's 21 toss-ups, 15 are Republican-held, and Democrats need to win only about one in five of them to reach 218.

The districts I am watching most closely:

• Iowa. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks's rematch with Christina Bohannan moved to Lean Democrat. Iowa's 1st and 3rd are both tilting away from the GOP, and the open 2nd is now a toss-up. Farm country anger over trade and input costs is real.

• Pennsylvania. Reps. Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry are now underdogs. When Perry is in trouble, the environment is doing the work.

• Michigan and Virginia. Reps. Bill Huizenga and Rob Wittman slipped to toss-ups. Neither was on anyone's target list a year ago.

• North Carolina's 1st. Rep. Don Davis survived a map drawn to beat him and is now in a coin flip, not a lost cause.

• New Mexico's 2nd. Rep. Gabe Vasquez sits at Lean Democrat. His seat matters directly to our Pueblo clients.

The Republican counterargument is money. The GOP still holds a financial advantage, and the President is campaigning hard. But one in four 2024 Trump voters in battleground districts told Politico their Republican candidate would be better off breaking with him. That is not a base that is going to rescue marginal seats.

The Senate: a 52-48 Democratic majority, just barely

My prediction: Democrats net five seats and control the Senate 52-48. This is my lowest-confidence call.

Republicans hold the chamber 53-47, and Democrats need a net gain of four. A year ago that looked out of reach. Today the Cook Political Report rates seven races as toss-ups, and six of them are Republican-held. North Carolina, an open Republican seat, has moved to Likely Democrat.

State	Matchup	Cook rating (Oct 6)	My call
North Carolina	Cooper (D) vs. Whatley (R), open R seat	Likely D	D flip
Ohio (special)	Brown (D) vs. Husted (R-inc.)	Toss-up	D flip
Maine	Jackson (D) vs. Collins (R-inc.)	Toss-up	D flip
Alaska	Peltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R-inc.)	Toss-up	D flip
Michigan	El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R), open D seat	Toss-up	D hold
Texas	Talarico (D) vs. Paxton (R), open R seat	Toss-up	D flip
Iowa	Turek (D) vs. Hinson (R), open R seat	Toss-up	R hold
Kansas	Marshall (R-inc.)	Toss-up	R hold

The path is narrow and every step has to hold. Democrats must keep Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire and Minnesota, then flip North Carolina plus three of the six Republican toss-ups. Sherrod Brown and James Talarico both lead their polling averages by about three points.

Alaska deserves special attention from our readers. Mary Peltola, a Yup'ik former House member, would be the first Alaska Native ever to serve in the U.S. Senate. Her race against Sen. Dan Sullivan is close enough that Native turnout in rural Alaska could decide control of the chamber.

Governors: watch New Mexico

My prediction: Deb Haaland wins and becomes the first Native American woman elected governor in U.S. history.

Of all the statehouse races this fall, none matters more to our Pueblo clients. The former Interior Secretary faces former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull for the open seat. An August Albuquerque Journal poll had Haaland ahead 49% to 43%, closer than many expected and almost identical to the 2022 margin.

Hull's path runs through independents, nearly half of whom were undecided in the August BSP Research survey. In this national environment, I do not see enough of them breaking Republican. A Haaland administration would bring unprecedented fluency in federal Indian policy to the state's relationship with its 23 Tribes, Pueblos and Nations.

What it means for Indian Country

A change in House control rewrites the agenda for tribal nations, and the work starts the morning after the election.

• New gavels, new staff. Democrats would take over the House Appropriations Committee, its Interior-Environment and Labor-HHS subcommittees, and House Natural Resources. A Senate flip would also move the Committee on Indian Affairs gavel. Relationships with incoming majority staff need to be built in November, not February.

• The FY2027 endgame. A lame-duck Congress rarely finishes the job. Expect a continuing resolution that pushes final FY2027 bills, and the Community Project Funding we have fought for, into the new Congress. Tribes should be ready to re-validate earmark requests with new majority offices.

• FY2028 rules will change. New majorities rewrite earmark guidance. Eligible accounts, caps and documentation standards may shift, so FY2028 project planning should stay flexible.

• Oversight returns. A Democratic House would bring aggressive oversight of federal agencies, including enforcement activity on tribal lands, BIA and IHS staffing, and the government-to-government consultation process.

• Divided government means deals. Big partisan bills would stall. The bipartisan, low-cost, high-impact legislation that tribal advocates do best, like land-into-trust fixes, water settlements and program reauthorizations, becomes the main vehicle for progress.

The bottom line

Three weeks is a long time, and early voting is already underway in many states. A ceasefire, a drop in gas prices, or a late scandal could still move the numbers. But midterm environments rarely reverse this late, and this one has been moving the same direction for six months.

Whatever happens on November 3, the tribal nations that do best in the 120th Congress will be the ones who show up early, build relationships on both sides of the aisle, and arrive with clear, fundable priorities. That has always been the work. The names on the doors are about to change.

Fred Starzyk is the Founder and Managing Director of Starzyk & Associates LLC, a federal government relations firm specializing in Tribal Nation advocacy, federal appropriations and congressional relations.

Sources

• Cook Political Report, 2026 Senate race ratings (Oct 6)

• Cook Political Report, 2026 House race ratings

• Axios, Cook Political Report tilts 18 House races toward Democrats (Oct 9)

• 270toWin, Cook 2026 House ratings table

• Ballotpedia, September approval and generic ballot averages

• RealClearPolling, Senate battleground averages

• KUNM, Albuquerque Journal poll on Haaland vs. Hull

• NM Political Report via nm.news, BSP Research poll